The
first-quarter growth of the economy related to the previous one, breaking a
process of successive reduction during eight quarters, was lower than it could
be, despite pessimistic estimates coming from a lot of analysts.
The effect
of the record crop of grains has been neglected due to the low participation of
the agricultural and livestock sectors in the GDP. These sectors grew
13.4%compared to the previous quarter and 15.2% compared to the same quarter of
the prior year. together with the mineral extraction, due to the recovery of
the Oil & Gas production, the GDP was kept from returning to the negative
value.
With the
crop breaking in 2016, the participation of the agriculture and the livestock
in the GDP, that had declined to reach a share of 3.24% in the last quarter of
2016. The reduction of the agriculture and livestock participation in the
fourth quarters is usual, due to the lack of significant harvest in these
periods.
The growth
in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the previous one is, therefore, less
relevant than the comparison of the same quarter of the previous year. The
significant issue is the 15.2% growth, increasing the share of agriculture
close to 6% into GDP.
Agribusiness
participation estimates are in order of 20%, involving the entire production
chain. This means that about 14% of the GDP is in other sectors, starting with
the agroindustry. For example, the production of the sugar and ethanol are
already industrial products, as they are the soybean bran and the oil. Being in
the primary sector, only the sugar cane and the soybean.
The
industry as a whole presents a positive variation in the quarter, driven by the
public utilities (energy and sanitation). Even the construction showed a small
increase.
The main
downwards change was due to the services sector, commerce included, result of
the continuous household consumption retraction.
The
relevant data on the results of the services was due to the continued decline
of the financial intermediation sector. This data suffered a decrease of 1.17%
in comparison with the immediately preceding quarter, being the seventh
consecutive, and presents a loss of 4.0% as compared to the same quarter of the
previous year. Nevertheless, it maintains a higher share of the GDP than the
agriculture and livestock. In the first quarter of 2017, its share of the GDP
was 7.42%, higher than the 5.82% of the agriculture and livestock.
It is so
not strange that the analysts who live daily with this retraction are more
pessimistic, distrusting of the numbers of the agriculture and livestock. It is
your world in which you are in major crisis and has been pulling GDP down,
since the second quarter of 2016, when Temer took over the Government, bringing
with Meirelles and Ilan, a drop in the financial intermediation sector that
involves banks, brokerage firms and others, has been falling more than GDP.
PresidentTemer
assumed the Government bringing with him Henrique Meirelles, the Financial
Secretary and Ilan Goldfarjn, President of Central Bank. The fall of the
financial intermediation sector that involve banks, brokerage firms and others
keep falling more than the GDP. The sector would have reason to be unsatisfied
with Temer and the monetary policy of the hid government.
In a mere
account, the figures say that agriculture record crop only did not impact more
positively the GDP evolution, because it was eroded by the fall in the
financial intermediation activity.
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